Gold
The gold price, measured through the GLD fund.
Market data as of 2 October 2026
Model state
LONG· 100% in the asset- In state: 42 d
- The model may change state on the next signal.
- Last state change 5 August 2026
- The signal comes from the closing price and is executed on the next trading day.
What would change the state
The model moves to CASH when both conditions hold at once:
- Trend < 0met
- risk risingnot met
- Trend Score
- −15
- Strength and direction of the price trend over three horizons, from −100 to +100.
- Current volatility
- 22.1%
- Realised over the last 21 trading days, annualised.
- Expected volatility
- 20.8%
- IVCalibrated model estimate for roughly the next 21 trading days.
Risk:FallingDirection of the change in volatility, not of the price.
What the model says
Report for 2 October 2026Gold declined by 0.7% and its trend score dropped by 12 points to -15. Current volatility is 22.1% against an expected 20.8%, meaning risk is falling. The model remains in LONG and a switch to CASH would need risk to be rising.
Written by AI (Google Gemini) from the model's numbers only. Every number in it is checked automatically against the calculation. Not investment advice.
Over time
The history covers 504 trading days.
Model state over time
30/9/2024LONGCASH2/10/2026
Last 10 trading days
| Date | Trend Score | Current volatility | Expected volatility | Day's signal | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −15 | 22.1% | 20.8% | hold | LONG | |
| −3 | 22.5% | 20.9% | hold | LONG | |
| −8 | 24.6% | 21.2% | hold | LONG | |
| −2 | 24.5% | 21.7% | hold | LONG | |
| −13 | 26.7% | 22.1% | hold | LONG | |
| +7 | 22.8% | 20.1% | LONG | LONG | |
| +3 | 23.4% | 20.2% | LONG | LONG | |
| +7 | 23.4% | 20.4% | LONG | LONG | |
| +13 | 22.7% | 21.1% | LONG | LONG | |
| +12 | 23.6% | 20.9% | LONG | LONG |
Model parameters on the latest day
- Underlying
- GLD
- Implied volatility index
- GVZ
- Implied volatility (GVZ)
- 23.23
- α (intercept)
- -1.16051
- β (slope)
- 0.91066
- Training observations
- 4,261
FL_MM_V1
These outputs come from a research model and are for education. They are not investment advice or a price forecast. Past model results do not guarantee future ones.